80th Annual Academy Awards predictions

my predictions and thoughts on the 80th annual Academy Awards are after the jump.



Best motion picture of the year
“Atonement” (Focus Features)
A Working Title Production
Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner and Paul Webster, Producers

“Juno” (Fox Searchlight)
A Mandate Pictures/Mr. Mudd Production
Lianne Halfon, Mason Novick and Russell Smith, Producers

“Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
A Clayton Productions, LLC Production
Sydney Pollack, Jennifer Fox and Kerry Orent, Producers

“No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
A Scott Rudin/Mike Zoss Production
Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers

“There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
A JoAnne Sellar/Ghoulardi Film Company Production
JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson and Daniel Lupi, Producers

Will Win: No Country For Old Men
Should Win: There Will Be Blood/No Country For Old Men

Before I go on, let me just say this is the best Best Picture noms in a long time. Really, all of these movies are at the very least good. Atonement is my least favorite of the bunch, and it's a well made movie. Usually for my least favorite movie in the category is something I despise. Of course it isn't perfect. It never is. I would of replaced Atonement and maybe Juno with either Zodiac or The Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford to make the category truly perfect.

Atonement has no chance at all and as it should be in a field like this. Juno, while being a nice, fun little movie, really shouldn't win this. It is however, better then last year's quirky comedy entry in Little Miss Sunshine. I'm hearing people are thinking it may upset, but I doubt it. In any other year, Michael Clayton would stand a good shot of winning cause it's a truly amazing film, but not in a year as stacked as this one. Which then leaves us with No Country For Old Men and There Will Be Blood. The momentum is definitely on No Country's side and I think it has it locked up. The fact is, and something I never say, I would be perfectly fine with either NCFOM or TWBB winning. They are both masterful films made by two of the very best directors around today. It is really the coolest faceoff in years for the Academy Awards. How they both got the most nominations just makes me so, so, very happy.

Achievement in directing
“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn) Julian Schnabel
“Juno” (Fox Searchlight) Jason Reitman
“Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.) Tony Gilroy
“No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
“There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Paul Thomas Anderson


Will Win: Coen Brothers, No Country For Old Men
Should Win: Coen Brothers, No Country For Old Men

A lot of the times when big directors finally win an Oscar for their work it's for a film that isn't as good as their previous work. That is not the case here. This is one of the Coen Brothers' very best films, and I will be so happy to see them win. They made my all-time favorite film in The Big Lebowski and it's just very deserved.

Performance by an actor in a leading role
George Clooney in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
Daniel Day-Lewis in “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Johnny Depp in “Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
(DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
Tommy Lee Jones in “In the Valley of Elah” (Warner Independent)
Viggo Mortensen in “Eastern Promises” (Focus Features)

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

don't need to explain this one. It's obvious. Pretty great category though with very deserving performances from Viggo Mortensen and George Clooney in there. but, yeah. It's the Daniel Day-Lewis show. as it should be

Performance by an actress in a leading role
Cate Blanchett in “Elizabeth: The Golden Age” (Universal)
Julie Christie in “Away from Her” (Lionsgate)
Marion Cotillard in “La Vie en Rose” (Picturehouse)
Laura Linney in “The Savages” (Fox Searchlight)
Ellen Page in “Juno” (Fox Searchlight)

Will Win: Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Should Win: Ellen Page, Juno

This is really a category where I have no real judgment in here. I have only seen one of these movies (Juno), while the rest I either have no interest in (Elizabeth: The Golden Age, Away from Her) or have been waiting to see (The Savages). From what i've seen of Marion's performance it's really some amazing stuff. She's definitely a future talent. I picked Ellen Page though, besides it being the only one of these performances i've seen, but it would be great to see her win. Canada represent!

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Casey Affleck in “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” (Warner Bros.)
Javier Bardem in “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Charlie Wilson’s War” (Universal)
Hal Holbrook in “Into the Wild” (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment)
Tom Wilkinson in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)

Will Win: Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
Should Win: Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men

Another obvious one, but this category is really stacked. All of these performances are really great work. Phillip Seymour Hoffman is one of the best working actors around today, Hal Holbrook is great in Into The Wild, Tom Wilkinson is just amazing in Michael Clayton, and Casey Affleck is just perfect in Jesse James. Javier's win in here has been pretty much sealed up since last May, but it's very deserved. Would love to see Casey Affleck win though to give Jesse James some love.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Cate Blanchett in “I’m Not There” (The Weinstein Company)
Ruby Dee in “American Gangster” (Universal)
Saoirse Ronan in “Atonement” (Focus Features)
Amy Ryan in “Gone Baby Gone” (Miramax)
Tilda Swinton in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)

Will Win: Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Should Win: Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone

Amy Ryan at one point was the frontrunner in this category, but now it seems that Cate Blanchett and Tilda Swinton are neck-and-neck for it. Those are both great performances, but I would love it more if Amy Ryan won. it is truly a great performance, and it would give her more attention. She has been amazing on The Wire for years now, and it would be great for someone to honor her for her hard work.

Adapted screenplay

“Atonement” (Focus Features)
Screenplay by Christopher Hampton
“Away from Her” (Lionsgate)
Written by Sarah Polley
“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn)
Screenplay by Ronald Harwood
“No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
“There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson
Will Win: Coen Brothers, No Country For Old Men
Should Win: Coen Brothers/Paul Thomas Anderson

I'm fine with either winning. Read the Best Picture summary.

Original screenplay
“Juno” (Fox Searchlight)
Written by Diablo Cody
“Lars and the Real Girl” (MGM)
Written by Nancy Oliver
“Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
Written by Tony Gilroy
“Ratatouille” (Walt Disney)
Screenplay by Brad Bird
Story by Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco, Brad Bird
“The Savages” (Fox Searchlight)
Written by Tamara Jenkins

Will Win: Diablo Cody, Juno
Should Win: Anything

I really wouldn't mind any of these winning. They are all amazing films, but Diablo Cody is the new queen in town so her win will be much deserved.

Best animated feature film of the year
“Persepolis” (Sony Pictures Classics) Marjane Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud
“Ratatouille” (Walt Disney) Brad Bird
“Surf's Up” (Sony Pictures Releasing) Ash Brannon and Chris Buck

Will Win, Should Win: Ratatouille

AKA, the give Ratatouille an award category. One of the best animated movies i've ever seen. Brad Bird has done it again. With this win he will be the only director to win the Best animated feature Oscar more than once (He won it before for The Incredibles).

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
“Falling Slowly” from “Once”
(Fox Searchlight)
Music and Lyric by Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova

“Happy Working Song” from “Enchanted”
(Walt Disney)
Music by Alan Menken
Lyric by Stephen Schwartz

“Raise It Up” from “August Rush”
(Warner Bros.)
Music and lyric by Jamal Joseph, Charles Mack and Tevin Thomas

“So Close” from “Enchanted”
(Walt Disney)
Music by Alan Menken
Lyric by Stephen Schwartz

“That’s How You Know” from “Enchanted”
(Walt Disney)
Music by Alan Menken
Lyric by Stephen Schwartz

Will Win: Falling Slowly, Once
should Win: Beautiful Ride, Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story

This category is an abomination this year. I'm sure Enchanted was a nice little movie, but 3 song noms?!? That is fucking ridiculous. August Rush?!?! No one saw that shit. The only deserving nom in here is the one who will win: Falling Slowly from Once. I do think the whole Once train has made it overrated, but you can't deny how nice the music is. How nothing from Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story didn't get nominated is bullshit on the highest level. Those songs are all much more memorable then anything in this category. Eff that noise. I guess I can't expect much from the same people who gave an Academy Award to Phil Collins for his Tarzan song over Aimee Mann, and Trey Parker and Matt Stone.


I'll probably do another post following the show for my thoughts on what went down. Look out for it!